code from part four of the polk county inmates series

Title# Polk County Inmates Part 4
# using R to construct a linear model of bail amounts

library(MASS)
library(rpart)
library(klaR)
library(caret)
## Loading required package: lattice
## Loading required package: ggplot2
# read in our inmates data, as of approximately 4am CT on 9/3/2016

data <- read.csv("C:/Users/Tammy/Documents/Arrests20160903.csv", header = TRUE,
                    sep="," , stringsAsFactors = TRUE)

# create dummy variable indicating whether or not an inmate has a (nonzero) bond value
# and do some type transformations/cleanup

data$BondDummy <- as.factor(data$BondNum != 0)
data$HeightNum <- sapply(strsplit(as.character(data$Height), "'|\""),
                            function(x){12*as.numeric(x[1]) + as.numeric(x[2])})

# split into training and validation sets

smp_size <- floor(0.8 * nrow(data))
set.seed(123)
sample <- sample(seq_len(nrow(data)), size = smp_size)

train <- data[sample, ]
validate <- data[-sample, ]

# model likelihood of having a nonzero bond amount
logistic <- glm(BondDummy ~ Age + Eyes + Hair + Race + Sex + Weight + HeightNum + ClusterName,
                data = train, family=binomial)
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
summary(logistic)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = BondDummy ~ Age + Eyes + Hair + Race + Sex + Weight + 
##     HeightNum + ClusterName, family = binomial, data = train)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -2.5295  -0.4632   0.3508   0.6495   2.6426  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                    Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                       3.205e+01  1.596e+03   0.020    0.984
## Age                              -4.362e-04  1.121e-02  -0.039    0.969
## EyesBlue                          5.979e-02  2.291e+00   0.026    0.979
## EyesBrown                         4.495e-01  2.273e+00   0.198    0.843
## EyesGray                          2.855e+00  2.731e+00   1.045    0.296
## EyesGreen                         1.974e-01  2.314e+00   0.085    0.932
## EyesHazel                        -8.598e-01  2.306e+00  -0.373    0.709
## EyesMUL                           1.895e+01  3.956e+03   0.005    0.996
## HairBlack                         1.604e-01  6.716e-01   0.239    0.811
## HairBlonde                        2.822e-01  8.268e-01   0.341    0.733
## HairBrown                        -2.010e-01  6.835e-01  -0.294    0.769
## HairGray                         -5.369e-01  8.746e-01  -0.614    0.539
## HairMUL                           1.592e+01  1.620e+03   0.010    0.992
## HairRed                           1.645e+00  1.285e+00   1.281    0.200
## HairSand                          1.265e+00  1.853e+00   0.682    0.495
## HairWhite                        -2.004e-01  1.754e+00  -0.114    0.909
## RaceBlack                         3.111e-01  9.434e-01   0.330    0.742
## RacePacific Islander             -1.696e+01  1.129e+03  -0.015    0.988
## RaceWhite                         1.246e+00  9.552e-01   1.304    0.192
## SexMale                          -2.120e-01  3.394e-01  -0.625    0.532
## Weight                           -4.446e-04  3.156e-03  -0.141    0.888
## HeightNum                        -2.751e-03  2.246e-02  -0.122    0.903
## ClusterNameBurglary              -3.065e+01  1.596e+03  -0.019    0.985
## ClusterNameControlled Substance  -3.062e+01  1.596e+03  -0.019    0.985
## ClusterNameCriminal Mischief     -3.025e+01  1.596e+03  -0.019    0.985
## ClusterNameDomestic/Sexual Abuse -3.095e+01  1.596e+03  -0.019    0.985
## ClusterNameDWI/Intoxication      -3.114e+01  1.596e+03  -0.020    0.984
## ClusterNameHarrassment           -3.145e+01  1.596e+03  -0.020    0.984
## ClusterNameInjury                -3.083e+01  1.596e+03  -0.019    0.985
## ClusterNameInterference          -3.330e+01  1.596e+03  -0.021    0.983
## ClusterNameMisc                  -3.258e+01  1.596e+03  -0.020    0.984
## ClusterNameNarcotics             -2.988e+01  1.596e+03  -0.019    0.985
## ClusterNameProbation Violation   -3.545e+01  1.596e+03  -0.022    0.982
## ClusterNameTheft                 -3.152e+01  1.596e+03  -0.020    0.984
## ClusterNameTrespassing           -3.398e+01  1.596e+03  -0.021    0.983
## ClusterNameWeapons               -3.015e+01  1.596e+03  -0.019    0.985
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 892.15  on 671  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 573.72  on 636  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 645.72
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 16
# we have some complete separation problems - good in theory but bad for logistic regression.
# let's try a decision tree instead.

tree <- rpart(BondDummy ~ Age + Eyes + Hair + Race + Sex + Weight + HeightNum + ClusterName,
               data=train, method = 'class' )
plot(tree, uniform=TRUE, main = "Decision Tree for Bonds or Not - Arrest Clusters")
text(tree, pretty=0)
# this seems a little goofy because there's no obvious reason for hair color, height, or perhaps age
# to impact whether or not someone gets a bond. But these are lower-order splits in our tree: the heavy 
# lifting is really done by the crime of which an inmate is accused.

# let's see how our predictions compare to reality
train$BondDumPred <- predict(tree, train, type = 'class')
conf <- table(train$BondDumPred, train$BondDummy)
conf
##        
##         FALSE TRUE
##   FALSE   190   40
##   TRUE     65  377
# accuracy rate is:
(conf[1,1] + conf[2,2])/sum(conf)
## [1] 0.84375
# nearly 84% ... not bad!

tree2 <- rpart(BondDummy ~ Age + Eyes + Hair + Race + Sex + Weight + HeightNum + Description,
               data=train, method = 'class' )
plot(tree2, uniform=TRUE, main = "Decision Tree for Bonds or Not - Raw Arrest Descriptions")
text(tree2, pretty=0)
# this seems a little goofy because there's no obvious reason for hair color, height, or perhaps age
# to impact whether or not someone gets a bond. But these are lower-order splits in our tree: the heavy 
# lifting is really done by the crime of which an inmate is accused.

# let's see how our predictions compare to reality
train$BondDumPred2 <- predict(tree2, train, type = 'class')
conf2 <- table(train$BondDumPred2, train$BondDummy)
conf2
##        
##         FALSE TRUE
##   FALSE   200   14
##   TRUE     55  403
# accuracy rate is:
(conf[1,1] + conf[2,2])/sum(conf)
## [1] 0.84375
# 90% ... better but not overwhelmingly so.

# now that we can kind of predict whether or not an inmate will have a non-zero bond amount, let's predict
# how much that bond will be

# create a data set of just the inmates who have nonzero bonds
bonds <- train[train$BondDummy == TRUE,]

# take a peek at the distribution of bond amounts
hist(bonds$BondNum, plot=TRUE)
# yikes! That's a hefty skew. Let's take the log of the bond amounts so we're not dealing with such
# crazy skew, which would bias the model.

bonds$LogBond <- log(bonds$BondNum)
hist(bonds$LogBond, plot=TRUE)
# that's better. Now let's model the bond amounts

ols <- lm(LogBond ~ Age + Eyes + Hair + Race + Sex + Weight + HeightNum + ClusterName,
          data = bonds)
summary(ols)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = LogBond ~ Age + Eyes + Hair + Race + Sex + Weight + 
##     HeightNum + ClusterName, data = bonds)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -3.6426 -1.1281 -0.0043  0.9470  4.4342 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                   Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                       9.100187   2.341072   3.887 0.000120 ***
## Age                              -0.012809   0.009015  -1.421 0.156170    
## EyesBlue                         -0.801132   1.724827  -0.464 0.642576    
## EyesBrown                        -0.624542   1.720451  -0.363 0.716798    
## EyesGray                          1.723698   1.928541   0.894 0.372002    
## EyesGreen                        -0.846645   1.741270  -0.486 0.627089    
## EyesHazel                        -0.975751   1.744872  -0.559 0.576346    
## EyesMUL                          -2.985737   2.872510  -1.039 0.299270    
## HairBlack                        -0.215667   0.482920  -0.447 0.655424    
## HairBlonde                       -0.173516   0.555148  -0.313 0.754788    
## HairBrown                        -0.086294   0.470542  -0.183 0.854588    
## HairGray                          0.114231   0.639219   0.179 0.858265    
## HairMUL                           0.105484   0.902719   0.117 0.907039    
## HairRed                           0.141440   0.644799   0.219 0.826491    
## HairSand                         -1.298411   1.244435  -1.043 0.297437    
## HairWhite                         0.139816   1.693989   0.083 0.934264    
## RaceBlack                         0.426077   0.877729   0.485 0.627649    
## RacePacific Islander              1.751576   1.963647   0.892 0.372955    
## RaceWhite                         0.350034   0.870249   0.402 0.687746    
## SexMale                           0.360313   0.262529   1.372 0.170724    
## Weight                            0.001771   0.002374   0.746 0.456157    
## HeightNum                        -0.026998   0.019996  -1.350 0.177768    
## ClusterNameBurglary               1.859579   0.752060   2.473 0.013847 *  
## ClusterNameControlled Substance   2.399568   0.760792   3.154 0.001738 ** 
## ClusterNameCriminal Mischief      1.370868   0.869429   1.577 0.115684    
## ClusterNameDomestic/Sexual Abuse  1.327494   0.729051   1.821 0.069414 .  
## ClusterNameDWI/Intoxication       0.693605   0.724711   0.957 0.339134    
## ClusterNameHarrassment           -0.029101   0.783608  -0.037 0.970395    
## ClusterNameInjury                 2.033273   0.957164   2.124 0.034291 *  
## ClusterNameInterference           1.009077   1.353466   0.746 0.456399    
## ClusterNameMisc                   2.361119   0.693427   3.405 0.000732 ***
## ClusterNameNarcotics              2.796995   0.701105   3.989 7.94e-05 ***
## ClusterNameProbation Violation    0.700575   0.868682   0.806 0.420469    
## ClusterNameTheft                  1.527687   0.717558   2.129 0.033894 *  
## ClusterNameTrespassing            2.126307   1.768907   1.202 0.230093    
## ClusterNameWeapons                1.795695   0.768011   2.338 0.019898 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 1.614 on 381 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2324,	Adjusted R-squared:  0.1619 
## F-statistic: 3.295 on 35 and 381 DF,  p-value: 6.441e-09
plot(bonds$LogBond, ols$residuals, main = "Prediction Errors vs Actual Values",
     xlab="Actual Bond Value (natural log)", ylab="Prediction Error")
# the larger the bond amount, the worse we are at predicting it. the only thing that's significant 
# is the cluster of the arrest description! so let's run the unclustered Descriptions and nothing else
ols2 <- lm(LogBond ~ Description, data = bonds)
summary(ols2)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = LogBond ~ Description, data = bonds)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -3.1672 -0.3466  0.0000  0.1947  3.5116 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                                           Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                              1.013e+01
## DescriptionARSON 1ST DEGREE -- Persons Present                           1.386e+00
## DescriptionARSON 2ND DEGREE                                             -9.163e-01
## DescriptionASSAULT - w/ Intent to Cause Pain/Injury                     -1.833e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT - WILLFUL INJURY                                     -9.163e-01
## DescriptionASSAULT (SMMS)                                               -3.474e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY                                -2.803e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY OR MENTAL ILLNESS              -3.219e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT ON PEACE OFFICERS and OTHERS                         -3.219e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT ON PERSONS IN CERTAIN OCCUPATIONS-NO INJURY          -3.219e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT USE/DISPLAY OF A WEAPON                              -2.526e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT WHILE DISPLAYING A DANGEROUS WEAPON                  -2.526e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT WITH INTENT OF INJURY ON A PEACE OFFICER/OTHERS      -1.609e+00
## DescriptionATTEMPTED BURGLARY 3RD DEGREE                                -2.526e+00
## DescriptionATTEMPTED MURDER                                              1.692e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 1ST DEGREE                                           4.621e-01
## DescriptionBURGLARY 1ST DEGREE -- Sexual Abuse                          -5.928e-14
## DescriptionBURGLARY 2ND DEGREE                                          -9.163e-01
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE                                          -1.304e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE-UNOCCUPIED MOTOR VEHICLE-2ND OR SUBSEQUE -2.526e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - MOTOR VEHICLE - 2ND OR SUBSEQUENT OFFE -1.609e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - MOTOR VEHICLE, 1st Offence             -2.526e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - UNOCCUPIED MOTOR VEHICLE               -2.526e+00
## DescriptionCARRYING WEAPONS                                             -2.342e+00
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT -- Substantial Risk                       -2.526e+00
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT - BODILY INJURY Child Endangerment -- Tor -1.609e+00
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT (OLL OTHERS - NONVIOLENT)                 -1.139e+00
## DescriptionCONSUMPTION / INTOXICATION                                   -3.676e+00
## DescriptionCONTEMPT-ILLEGAL RESISTANCE TO ORDER OR PROCESS              -3.912e+00
## DescriptionCONTEMPT - RESIST ORDER OR PROCESS OF DISTRICT COURT Contemp -2.526e+00
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION                               -5.171e-02
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION - Intent to Deliver Synthetic  6.931e-01
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION Conspire Intent Manufacture/D  1.386e+00
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION Conspire w/ Intent to Deliver  1.386e+00
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 2ND DEGREE                                 -1.274e+00
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 3RD DEGREE                                 -1.609e+00
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 4TH DEGREE                                 -3.219e+00
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 5TH DEGREE                                 -3.219e+00
## DescriptionDISORDERLY CONDUCT                                           -3.912e+00
## DescriptionDNU - INTERFERENCE W/ OFFICIAL ACTS -                        -3.912e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT                                       -2.999e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT- INJURY OR MENTAL ILLNESS - 1ST OFFEN -1.833e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT - 3RD OR SUBSEQUENT OFFENSE           -7.811e-01
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT CAUSE BODILY INJURY/MENTAL ILLNESS    -2.345e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT DISPLAY OR USE OF A WEAPON - 1ST OFFE -1.319e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT IMPEDING AIR/BLOOD FLOW CAUSING BODIL -2.526e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT IMPEDING FLOW OF AIR/BLOOD            -1.263e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT W/INTENT OR DISPLAYS A WEAPON         -1.721e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT WITH STRANGULATION                    -1.609e+00
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE BARRED - HABITUAL OFFENDER                     -2.080e+00
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE BARRED HABITUAL OFFENDER                       -2.526e+00
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE LICENSE DENIED,SUSP,CANCELLED OR REVOKED       -3.476e+00
## DescriptionELUDING (AGMS) ELUDING (AGMS)                                -2.526e+00
## DescriptionELUDING (FELD)                                               -9.574e-01
## DescriptionELUDING (SRMS) ELUDING (SRMS)                                -3.219e+00
## DescriptionELUDING POLICE OFFICER                                       -1.833e+00
## DescriptionESCAPE - 0001                                                -2.526e+00
## DescriptionESCAPE FROM CUSTODY - MISDEMEANANT                           -2.303e+00
## DescriptionFAILURE TO AFFIX DRUG TAX STAMP                              -1.609e+00
## DescriptionFALSE REPORT TO PUBLIC ENITY                                 -3.219e+00
## DescriptionFELON - DOMINION OR CONTROL OF FIREARM OR OFFENSIVE WEAPON F -1.609e+00
## DescriptionFORGERY                                                      -1.391e+00
## DescriptionHARASSMENT - 2ND DEGREE-THREATEN BODILY INJURY               -3.219e+00
## DescriptionHARASSMENT 1ST DEGREE                                        -2.643e+00
## DescriptionHARASSMENT 2ND DEGREE                                        -3.467e-14
## DescriptionHARASSMENT OF PUBLIC OFFICIAL OR EMPLOYEE                    -3.912e+00
## DescriptionINTERFERENCE W/ CORRECTIONS OFFICIAL - DISPLAY DANGEROUS WEA -5.795e-14
## DescriptionINTERFERENCE W/OFFICIAL ACTS No injury or damage             -3.912e+00
## DescriptionINTIMIDATION WITH A DANGEROUS WEAPON                         -9.163e-01
## DescriptionINTIMIDATION WITH A DANGEROUS WEAPON - INJURE/PROVOKE FEAR    5.816e-01
## DescriptionKIDNAPPING 1ST DEGREE                                         2.996e+00
## DescriptionMALICIOUS PROSECUTION                                        -2.872e+00
## DescriptionMURDER 1ST DEGREE                                             3.304e+00
## DescriptionMURDER 2ND DEGREE                                             2.996e+00
## DescriptionMURDER IN THE 1ST DEGREE -- PREMEDITATION                     3.689e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - CONSPIRACY TO DELIVER SCH II - METH                   6.931e-01
## DescriptionNARCS - DELIVER SCH II - CRACK COCAINE                        6.931e-01
## DescriptionNARCS - MANUFACTURING SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE                1.386e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH I                     -1.341e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH I - HEROIN             6.931e-01
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II                     1.133e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - AMPHETAMINE       1.386e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - CRACK COCAINE     2.079e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE   1.213e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH I                                     -3.219e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH I - MARIJUANA                         -2.298e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II                                    -1.609e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE                  -2.125e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II - MORPH                            -3.219e+00
## DescriptionNEGLECT OR ABANDONMENT OF DEPENDANT PERSON                   -9.163e-01
## DescriptionNEGLECT OR ABANDONMENT OF DEPENDENT PERSON                   -9.163e-01
## DescriptionNONSUPPORT OF CHILD                                          -1.312e+00
## DescriptionOPER VEH WH INT (OWI) / 3RD OFFENSE                          -1.609e+00
## DescriptionOPERATE VEHICLE WITHOUT OWNERS CONSENT-- Motor Vehicle       -2.526e+00
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - 1ST OFFENSE - OWI 1ST          -2.436e+00
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - 2ND OFFENSE - OWI 2            -1.804e+00
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - SECOND OFFENSE                 -1.915e+00
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED, First Offense                   -8.419e-01
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 1ST OFFENSE              -2.988e+00
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 2ND OFFENSE              -2.297e+00
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 3RD OFFENSE              -1.609e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF A CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE                         -1.443e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF A CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE, 3RD OR SUBSEQUENT OFFE -2.526e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTRABAND IN CORRECTIONAL FACILITY            -1.609e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE - 3RD OR SUBSEQ OFFENSE 1 -1.609e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE - METHAMPHETAMINE 1ST OFF -3.219e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE MARIJUANA, 3RD/SUBSEQUENT -9.163e-01
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE, 2ND OFFENSE              -2.526e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF DRUG PARAPHERNALIA                             -4.423e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF WEAPON AS FELON                                -5.613e-01
## DescriptionPROBATION VIOLATION                                          -1.263e+00
## DescriptionPROSTITUTION                                                 -1.833e+00
## DescriptionPROVIDING FALSE INFORMATION                                  -4.423e+00
## DescriptionROBBERY-1ST DEGREE                                           -5.222e-14
## DescriptionROBBERY 1ST DEGREE                                            1.032e+00
## DescriptionROBBERY 2ND DEGREE                                           -1.116e-01
## DescriptionSERIOUS INJURY BY VEHICLE                                     6.931e-01
## DescriptionSEX OFFENDER - ADDITIONAL REGISTRATION VIOLATION - 1ST OFFEN -2.526e+00
## DescriptionSEXUAL ABUSE 2ND DEGREE                                      -5.340e-14
## DescriptionSEXUAL ABUSE 3RD DEGREE                                      -9.163e-01
## DescriptionSTALKING                                                     -9.163e-01
## DescriptionTHEFT 1ST DEGREE                                             -4.170e-01
## DescriptionTHEFT 2ND DEGREE                                             -1.557e+00
## DescriptionTHEFT 3RD DEGREE                                             -2.168e+00
## DescriptionTHEFT 3RD DEGREE -- Possess/Control Over $500 Under $1,000   -2.526e+00
## DescriptionTHEFT 4TH DEGREE                                             -2.253e+00
## DescriptionTHEFT 5TH DEGREE                                             -3.709e+00
## DescriptionTRAFFICKING IN STOLEN WEAPONS                                -1.609e+00
## DescriptionTRAFFICKING IN STOLEN WEAPONS 1ST OFFENSE                    -1.165e-13
## DescriptionTRESPASS - INJURY OR DAMAGE OVER $200                        -9.163e-01
## DescriptionTRESPASS - INJURY/DAMAGE over $200                           -3.219e+00
## DescriptionUNLAWFUL POSSESSION OF PRESCRIPTION DRUG                     -3.219e+00
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF NO CONTACT / PROTECTIVE ORDER                   -7.511e-01
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF NO CONTACT OR PROTECTIVE ORDER                  -6.872e-01
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985                                -2.179e+00
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985 VIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985  -2.648e+00
## DescriptionWILLFUL FAILURE TO STOP FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT                  -3.219e+00
## DescriptionWILLFUL INJURY                                               -9.163e-01
## DescriptionWILLFUL INJURY - CAUSING BODILY INJURY                       -9.163e-01
##                                                                         Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                              8.700e-01
## DescriptionARSON 1ST DEGREE -- Persons Present                           1.230e+00
## DescriptionARSON 2ND DEGREE                                              1.230e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT - w/ Intent to Cause Pain/Injury                      1.230e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT - WILLFUL INJURY                                      1.230e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT (SMMS)                                                9.727e-01
## DescriptionASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY                                 9.530e-01
## DescriptionASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY OR MENTAL ILLNESS               1.230e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT ON PEACE OFFICERS and OTHERS                          1.230e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT ON PERSONS IN CERTAIN OCCUPATIONS-NO INJURY           1.230e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT USE/DISPLAY OF A WEAPON                               1.066e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT WHILE DISPLAYING A DANGEROUS WEAPON                   1.230e+00
## DescriptionASSAULT WITH INTENT OF INJURY ON A PEACE OFFICER/OTHERS       1.230e+00
## DescriptionATTEMPTED BURGLARY 3RD DEGREE                                 1.066e+00
## DescriptionATTEMPTED MURDER                                              1.005e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 1ST DEGREE                                           1.005e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 1ST DEGREE -- Sexual Abuse                           1.230e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 2ND DEGREE                                           1.066e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE                                           9.087e-01
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE-UNOCCUPIED MOTOR VEHICLE-2ND OR SUBSEQUE  1.230e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - MOTOR VEHICLE - 2ND OR SUBSEQUENT OFFE  1.230e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - MOTOR VEHICLE, 1st Offence              1.066e+00
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - UNOCCUPIED MOTOR VEHICLE                1.230e+00
## DescriptionCARRYING WEAPONS                                              9.530e-01
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT -- Substantial Risk                        1.230e+00
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT - BODILY INJURY Child Endangerment -- Tor  1.230e+00
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT (OLL OTHERS - NONVIOLENT)                  1.230e+00
## DescriptionCONSUMPTION / INTOXICATION                                    9.029e-01
## DescriptionCONTEMPT-ILLEGAL RESISTANCE TO ORDER OR PROCESS               1.230e+00
## DescriptionCONTEMPT - RESIST ORDER OR PROCESS OF DISTRICT COURT Contemp  1.230e+00
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION                                9.301e-01
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION - Intent to Deliver Synthetic  1.230e+00
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION Conspire Intent Manufacture/D  1.230e+00
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION Conspire w/ Intent to Deliver  1.230e+00
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 2ND DEGREE                                  9.397e-01
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 3RD DEGREE                                  1.230e+00
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 4TH DEGREE                                  1.230e+00
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 5TH DEGREE                                  1.230e+00
## DescriptionDISORDERLY CONDUCT                                            1.230e+00
## DescriptionDNU - INTERFERENCE W/ OFFICIAL ACTS -                         1.230e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT                                        9.397e-01
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT- INJURY OR MENTAL ILLNESS - 1ST OFFEN  1.230e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT - 3RD OR SUBSEQUENT OFFENSE            1.005e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT CAUSE BODILY INJURY/MENTAL ILLNESS     9.125e-01
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT DISPLAY OR USE OF A WEAPON - 1ST OFFE  9.727e-01
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT IMPEDING AIR/BLOOD FLOW CAUSING BODIL  1.230e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT IMPEDING FLOW OF AIR/BLOOD             1.066e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT W/INTENT OR DISPLAYS A WEAPON          1.066e+00
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT WITH STRANGULATION                     1.230e+00
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE BARRED - HABITUAL OFFENDER                      8.968e-01
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE BARRED HABITUAL OFFENDER                        1.230e+00
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE LICENSE DENIED,SUSP,CANCELLED OR REVOKED        1.005e+00
## DescriptionELUDING (AGMS) ELUDING (AGMS)                                 1.066e+00
## DescriptionELUDING (FELD)                                                9.397e-01
## DescriptionELUDING (SRMS) ELUDING (SRMS)                                 1.230e+00
## DescriptionELUDING POLICE OFFICER                                        1.230e+00
## DescriptionESCAPE - 0001                                                 1.230e+00
## DescriptionESCAPE FROM CUSTODY - MISDEMEANANT                            1.230e+00
## DescriptionFAILURE TO AFFIX DRUG TAX STAMP                               1.230e+00
## DescriptionFALSE REPORT TO PUBLIC ENITY                                  1.230e+00
## DescriptionFELON - DOMINION OR CONTROL OF FIREARM OR OFFENSIVE WEAPON F  1.230e+00
## DescriptionFORGERY                                                       9.727e-01
## DescriptionHARASSMENT - 2ND DEGREE-THREATEN BODILY INJURY                1.230e+00
## DescriptionHARASSMENT 1ST DEGREE                                         9.727e-01
## DescriptionHARASSMENT 2ND DEGREE                                         1.230e+00
## DescriptionHARASSMENT OF PUBLIC OFFICIAL OR EMPLOYEE                     1.066e+00
## DescriptionINTERFERENCE W/ CORRECTIONS OFFICIAL - DISPLAY DANGEROUS WEA  1.230e+00
## DescriptionINTERFERENCE W/OFFICIAL ACTS No injury or damage              9.727e-01
## DescriptionINTIMIDATION WITH A DANGEROUS WEAPON                          1.230e+00
## DescriptionINTIMIDATION WITH A DANGEROUS WEAPON - INJURE/PROVOKE FEAR    1.066e+00
## DescriptionKIDNAPPING 1ST DEGREE                                         1.230e+00
## DescriptionMALICIOUS PROSECUTION                                         1.066e+00
## DescriptionMURDER 1ST DEGREE                                             9.171e-01
## DescriptionMURDER 2ND DEGREE                                             1.230e+00
## DescriptionMURDER IN THE 1ST DEGREE -- PREMEDITATION                     1.230e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - CONSPIRACY TO DELIVER SCH II - METH                   1.066e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - DELIVER SCH II - CRACK COCAINE                        1.230e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - MANUFACTURING SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE                1.230e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH I                      9.397e-01
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH I - HEROIN             1.005e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II                     9.530e-01
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - AMPHETAMINE       1.230e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - CRACK COCAINE     1.230e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE   8.887e-01
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH I                                      1.066e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH I - MARIJUANA                          9.087e-01
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II                                     1.066e+00
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE                   9.055e-01
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II - MORPH                             1.230e+00
## DescriptionNEGLECT OR ABANDONMENT OF DEPENDANT PERSON                    1.230e+00
## DescriptionNEGLECT OR ABANDONMENT OF DEPENDENT PERSON                    1.230e+00
## DescriptionNONSUPPORT OF CHILD                                           1.066e+00
## DescriptionOPER VEH WH INT (OWI) / 3RD OFFENSE                           1.230e+00
## DescriptionOPERATE VEHICLE WITHOUT OWNERS CONSENT-- Motor Vehicle        1.230e+00
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - 1ST OFFENSE - OWI 1ST           9.530e-01
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - 2ND OFFENSE - OWI 2             9.301e-01
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - SECOND OFFENSE                  1.005e+00
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED, First Offense                    1.005e+00
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 1ST OFFENSE               1.005e+00
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 2ND OFFENSE               9.727e-01
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 3RD OFFENSE               1.066e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF A CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE                          9.301e-01
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF A CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE, 3RD OR SUBSEQUENT OFFE  1.230e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTRABAND IN CORRECTIONAL FACILITY             1.230e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE - 3RD OR SUBSEQ OFFENSE 1  1.230e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE - METHAMPHETAMINE 1ST OFF  1.230e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE MARIJUANA, 3RD/SUBSEQUENT  1.230e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE, 2ND OFFENSE               1.066e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF DRUG PARAPHERNALIA                              1.230e+00
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF WEAPON AS FELON                                 9.301e-01
## DescriptionPROBATION VIOLATION                                           1.066e+00
## DescriptionPROSTITUTION                                                  1.230e+00
## DescriptionPROVIDING FALSE INFORMATION                                   1.230e+00
## DescriptionROBBERY-1ST DEGREE                                            1.066e+00
## DescriptionROBBERY 1ST DEGREE                                            9.087e-01
## DescriptionROBBERY 2ND DEGREE                                            1.066e+00
## DescriptionSERIOUS INJURY BY VEHICLE                                     1.230e+00
## DescriptionSEX OFFENDER - ADDITIONAL REGISTRATION VIOLATION - 1ST OFFEN  1.230e+00
## DescriptionSEXUAL ABUSE 2ND DEGREE                                       1.005e+00
## DescriptionSEXUAL ABUSE 3RD DEGREE                                       1.230e+00
## DescriptionSTALKING                                                      1.230e+00
## DescriptionTHEFT 1ST DEGREE                                              9.397e-01
## DescriptionTHEFT 2ND DEGREE                                              8.896e-01
## DescriptionTHEFT 3RD DEGREE                                              9.171e-01
## DescriptionTHEFT 3RD DEGREE -- Possess/Control Over $500 Under $1,000    1.230e+00
## DescriptionTHEFT 4TH DEGREE                                              9.530e-01
## DescriptionTHEFT 5TH DEGREE                                              1.066e+00
## DescriptionTRAFFICKING IN STOLEN WEAPONS                                 1.230e+00
## DescriptionTRAFFICKING IN STOLEN WEAPONS 1ST OFFENSE                     1.230e+00
## DescriptionTRESPASS - INJURY OR DAMAGE OVER $200                         1.230e+00
## DescriptionTRESPASS - INJURY/DAMAGE over $200                            1.230e+00
## DescriptionUNLAWFUL POSSESSION OF PRESCRIPTION DRUG                      1.066e+00
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF NO CONTACT / PROTECTIVE ORDER                    9.228e-01
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF NO CONTACT OR PROTECTIVE ORDER                   9.727e-01
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985                                 9.727e-01
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985 VIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985   9.727e-01
## DescriptionWILLFUL FAILURE TO STOP FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT                   1.230e+00
## DescriptionWILLFUL INJURY                                                1.230e+00
## DescriptionWILLFUL INJURY - CAUSING BODILY INJURY                        1.230e+00
##                                                                         t value
## (Intercept)                                                              11.640
## DescriptionARSON 1ST DEGREE -- Persons Present                            1.127
## DescriptionARSON 2ND DEGREE                                              -0.745
## DescriptionASSAULT - w/ Intent to Cause Pain/Injury                      -1.489
## DescriptionASSAULT - WILLFUL INJURY                                      -0.745
## DescriptionASSAULT (SMMS)                                                -3.572
## DescriptionASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY                                 -2.941
## DescriptionASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY OR MENTAL ILLNESS               -2.616
## DescriptionASSAULT ON PEACE OFFICERS and OTHERS                          -2.616
## DescriptionASSAULT ON PERSONS IN CERTAIN OCCUPATIONS-NO INJURY           -2.616
## DescriptionASSAULT USE/DISPLAY OF A WEAPON                               -2.370
## DescriptionASSAULT WHILE DISPLAYING A DANGEROUS WEAPON                   -2.053
## DescriptionASSAULT WITH INTENT OF INJURY ON A PEACE OFFICER/OTHERS       -1.308
## DescriptionATTEMPTED BURGLARY 3RD DEGREE                                 -2.370
## DescriptionATTEMPTED MURDER                                               1.684
## DescriptionBURGLARY 1ST DEGREE                                            0.460
## DescriptionBURGLARY 1ST DEGREE -- Sexual Abuse                            0.000
## DescriptionBURGLARY 2ND DEGREE                                           -0.860
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE                                           -1.435
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE-UNOCCUPIED MOTOR VEHICLE-2ND OR SUBSEQUE  -2.053
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - MOTOR VEHICLE - 2ND OR SUBSEQUENT OFFE  -1.308
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - MOTOR VEHICLE, 1st Offence              -2.370
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - UNOCCUPIED MOTOR VEHICLE                -2.053
## DescriptionCARRYING WEAPONS                                              -2.458
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT -- Substantial Risk                        -2.053
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT - BODILY INJURY Child Endangerment -- Tor  -1.308
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT (OLL OTHERS - NONVIOLENT)                  -0.926
## DescriptionCONSUMPTION / INTOXICATION                                    -4.072
## DescriptionCONTEMPT-ILLEGAL RESISTANCE TO ORDER OR PROCESS               -3.180
## DescriptionCONTEMPT - RESIST ORDER OR PROCESS OF DISTRICT COURT Contemp  -2.053
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION                                -0.056
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION - Intent to Deliver Synthetic   0.563
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION Conspire Intent Manufacture/D   1.127
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION Conspire w/ Intent to Deliver   1.127
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 2ND DEGREE                                  -1.355
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 3RD DEGREE                                  -1.308
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 4TH DEGREE                                  -2.616
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 5TH DEGREE                                  -2.616
## DescriptionDISORDERLY CONDUCT                                            -3.180
## DescriptionDNU - INTERFERENCE W/ OFFICIAL ACTS -                         -3.180
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT                                        -3.191
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT- INJURY OR MENTAL ILLNESS - 1ST OFFEN  -1.489
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT - 3RD OR SUBSEQUENT OFFENSE            -0.778
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT CAUSE BODILY INJURY/MENTAL ILLNESS     -2.570
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT DISPLAY OR USE OF A WEAPON - 1ST OFFE  -1.356
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT IMPEDING AIR/BLOOD FLOW CAUSING BODIL  -2.053
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT IMPEDING FLOW OF AIR/BLOOD             -1.185
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT W/INTENT OR DISPLAYS A WEAPON          -1.615
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT WITH STRANGULATION                     -1.308
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE BARRED - HABITUAL OFFENDER                      -2.319
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE BARRED HABITUAL OFFENDER                        -2.053
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE LICENSE DENIED,SUSP,CANCELLED OR REVOKED        -3.460
## DescriptionELUDING (AGMS) ELUDING (AGMS)                                 -2.370
## DescriptionELUDING (FELD)                                                -1.019
## DescriptionELUDING (SRMS) ELUDING (SRMS)                                 -2.616
## DescriptionELUDING POLICE OFFICER                                        -1.489
## DescriptionESCAPE - 0001                                                 -2.053
## DescriptionESCAPE FROM CUSTODY - MISDEMEANANT                            -1.871
## DescriptionFAILURE TO AFFIX DRUG TAX STAMP                               -1.308
## DescriptionFALSE REPORT TO PUBLIC ENITY                                  -2.616
## DescriptionFELON - DOMINION OR CONTROL OF FIREARM OR OFFENSIVE WEAPON F  -1.308
## DescriptionFORGERY                                                       -1.430
## DescriptionHARASSMENT - 2ND DEGREE-THREATEN BODILY INJURY                -2.616
## DescriptionHARASSMENT 1ST DEGREE                                         -2.717
## DescriptionHARASSMENT 2ND DEGREE                                          0.000
## DescriptionHARASSMENT OF PUBLIC OFFICIAL OR EMPLOYEE                     -3.671
## DescriptionINTERFERENCE W/ CORRECTIONS OFFICIAL - DISPLAY DANGEROUS WEA   0.000
## DescriptionINTERFERENCE W/OFFICIAL ACTS No injury or damage              -4.022
## DescriptionINTIMIDATION WITH A DANGEROUS WEAPON                          -0.745
## DescriptionINTIMIDATION WITH A DANGEROUS WEAPON - INJURE/PROVOKE FEAR     0.546
## DescriptionKIDNAPPING 1ST DEGREE                                          2.435
## DescriptionMALICIOUS PROSECUTION                                         -2.696
## DescriptionMURDER 1ST DEGREE                                              3.603
## DescriptionMURDER 2ND DEGREE                                              2.435
## DescriptionMURDER IN THE 1ST DEGREE -- PREMEDITATION                      2.998
## DescriptionNARCS - CONSPIRACY TO DELIVER SCH II - METH                    0.651
## DescriptionNARCS - DELIVER SCH II - CRACK COCAINE                         0.563
## DescriptionNARCS - MANUFACTURING SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE                 1.127
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH I                      -1.427
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH I - HEROIN              0.690
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II                      1.188
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - AMPHETAMINE        1.127
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - CRACK COCAINE      1.690
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE    1.365
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH I                                      -3.021
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH I - MARIJUANA                          -2.529
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II                                     -1.510
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE                   -2.347
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II - MORPH                             -2.616
## DescriptionNEGLECT OR ABANDONMENT OF DEPENDANT PERSON                    -0.745
## DescriptionNEGLECT OR ABANDONMENT OF DEPENDENT PERSON                    -0.745
## DescriptionNONSUPPORT OF CHILD                                           -1.232
## DescriptionOPER VEH WH INT (OWI) / 3RD OFFENSE                           -1.308
## DescriptionOPERATE VEHICLE WITHOUT OWNERS CONSENT-- Motor Vehicle        -2.053
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - 1ST OFFENSE - OWI 1ST           -2.557
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - 2ND OFFENSE - OWI 2             -1.940
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - SECOND OFFENSE                  -1.906
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED, First Offense                    -0.838
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 1ST OFFENSE               -2.974
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 2ND OFFENSE               -2.361
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 3RD OFFENSE               -1.510
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF A CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE                          -1.552
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF A CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE, 3RD OR SUBSEQUENT OFFE  -2.053
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTRABAND IN CORRECTIONAL FACILITY             -1.308
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE - 3RD OR SUBSEQ OFFENSE 1  -1.308
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE - METHAMPHETAMINE 1ST OFF  -2.616
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE MARIJUANA, 3RD/SUBSEQUENT  -0.745
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE, 2ND OFFENSE               -2.370
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF DRUG PARAPHERNALIA                              -3.595
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF WEAPON AS FELON                                 -0.604
## DescriptionPROBATION VIOLATION                                           -1.185
## DescriptionPROSTITUTION                                                  -1.489
## DescriptionPROVIDING FALSE INFORMATION                                   -3.595
## DescriptionROBBERY-1ST DEGREE                                             0.000
## DescriptionROBBERY 1ST DEGREE                                             1.136
## DescriptionROBBERY 2ND DEGREE                                            -0.105
## DescriptionSERIOUS INJURY BY VEHICLE                                      0.563
## DescriptionSEX OFFENDER - ADDITIONAL REGISTRATION VIOLATION - 1ST OFFEN  -2.053
## DescriptionSEXUAL ABUSE 2ND DEGREE                                        0.000
## DescriptionSEXUAL ABUSE 3RD DEGREE                                       -0.745
## DescriptionSTALKING                                                      -0.745
## DescriptionTHEFT 1ST DEGREE                                              -0.444
## DescriptionTHEFT 2ND DEGREE                                              -1.750
## DescriptionTHEFT 3RD DEGREE                                              -2.364
## DescriptionTHEFT 3RD DEGREE -- Possess/Control Over $500 Under $1,000    -2.053
## DescriptionTHEFT 4TH DEGREE                                              -2.364
## DescriptionTHEFT 5TH DEGREE                                              -3.481
## DescriptionTRAFFICKING IN STOLEN WEAPONS                                 -1.308
## DescriptionTRAFFICKING IN STOLEN WEAPONS 1ST OFFENSE                      0.000
## DescriptionTRESPASS - INJURY OR DAMAGE OVER $200                         -0.745
## DescriptionTRESPASS - INJURY/DAMAGE over $200                            -2.616
## DescriptionUNLAWFUL POSSESSION OF PRESCRIPTION DRUG                      -3.021
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF NO CONTACT / PROTECTIVE ORDER                    -0.814
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF NO CONTACT OR PROTECTIVE ORDER                   -0.707
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985                                 -2.240
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985 VIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985   -2.723
## DescriptionWILLFUL FAILURE TO STOP FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT                   -2.616
## DescriptionWILLFUL INJURY                                                -0.745
## DescriptionWILLFUL INJURY - CAUSING BODILY INJURY                        -0.745
##                                                                         Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                                                              < 2e-16
## DescriptionARSON 1ST DEGREE -- Persons Present                          0.260831
## DescriptionARSON 2ND DEGREE                                             0.457068
## DescriptionASSAULT - w/ Intent to Cause Pain/Injury                     0.137504
## DescriptionASSAULT - WILLFUL INJURY                                     0.457068
## DescriptionASSAULT (SMMS)                                               0.000418
## DescriptionASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY                                0.003546
## DescriptionASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY OR MENTAL ILLNESS              0.009378
## DescriptionASSAULT ON PEACE OFFICERS and OTHERS                         0.009378
## DescriptionASSAULT ON PERSONS IN CERTAIN OCCUPATIONS-NO INJURY          0.009378
## DescriptionASSAULT USE/DISPLAY OF A WEAPON                              0.018452
## DescriptionASSAULT WHILE DISPLAYING A DANGEROUS WEAPON                  0.041027
## DescriptionASSAULT WITH INTENT OF INJURY ON A PEACE OFFICER/OTHERS      0.191925
## DescriptionATTEMPTED BURGLARY 3RD DEGREE                                0.018452
## DescriptionATTEMPTED MURDER                                             0.093308
## DescriptionBURGLARY 1ST DEGREE                                          0.645888
## DescriptionBURGLARY 1ST DEGREE -- Sexual Abuse                          1.000000
## DescriptionBURGLARY 2ND DEGREE                                          0.390567
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE                                          0.152420
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE-UNOCCUPIED MOTOR VEHICLE-2ND OR SUBSEQUE 0.041027
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - MOTOR VEHICLE - 2ND OR SUBSEQUENT OFFE 0.191925
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - MOTOR VEHICLE, 1st Offence             0.018452
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - UNOCCUPIED MOTOR VEHICLE               0.041027
## DescriptionCARRYING WEAPONS                                             0.014587
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT -- Substantial Risk                       0.041027
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT - BODILY INJURY Child Endangerment -- Tor 0.191925
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT (OLL OTHERS - NONVIOLENT)                 0.355205
## DescriptionCONSUMPTION / INTOXICATION                                   6.09e-05
## DescriptionCONTEMPT-ILLEGAL RESISTANCE TO ORDER OR PROCESS              0.001642
## DescriptionCONTEMPT - RESIST ORDER OR PROCESS OF DISTRICT COURT Contemp 0.041027
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION                               0.955705
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION - Intent to Deliver Synthetic 0.573643
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION Conspire Intent Manufacture/D 0.260831
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION Conspire w/ Intent to Deliver 0.260831
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 2ND DEGREE                                 0.176414
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 3RD DEGREE                                 0.191925
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 4TH DEGREE                                 0.009378
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 5TH DEGREE                                 0.009378
## DescriptionDISORDERLY CONDUCT                                           0.001642
## DescriptionDNU - INTERFERENCE W/ OFFICIAL ACTS -                        0.001642
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT                                       0.001581
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT- INJURY OR MENTAL ILLNESS - 1ST OFFEN 0.137504
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT - 3RD OR SUBSEQUENT OFFENSE           0.437490
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT CAUSE BODILY INJURY/MENTAL ILLNESS    0.010698
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT DISPLAY OR USE OF A WEAPON - 1ST OFFE 0.176307
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT IMPEDING AIR/BLOOD FLOW CAUSING BODIL 0.041027
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT IMPEDING FLOW OF AIR/BLOOD            0.236955
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT W/INTENT OR DISPLAYS A WEAPON         0.107411
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT WITH STRANGULATION                    0.191925
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE BARRED - HABITUAL OFFENDER                     0.021095
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE BARRED HABITUAL OFFENDER                       0.041027
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE LICENSE DENIED,SUSP,CANCELLED OR REVOKED       0.000625
## DescriptionELUDING (AGMS) ELUDING (AGMS)                                0.018452
## DescriptionELUDING (FELD)                                               0.309158
## DescriptionELUDING (SRMS) ELUDING (SRMS)                                0.009378
## DescriptionELUDING POLICE OFFICER                                       0.137504
## DescriptionESCAPE - 0001                                                0.041027
## DescriptionESCAPE FROM CUSTODY - MISDEMEANANT                           0.062333
## DescriptionFAILURE TO AFFIX DRUG TAX STAMP                              0.191925
## DescriptionFALSE REPORT TO PUBLIC ENITY                                 0.009378
## DescriptionFELON - DOMINION OR CONTROL OF FIREARM OR OFFENSIVE WEAPON F 0.191925
## DescriptionFORGERY                                                      0.153955
## DescriptionHARASSMENT - 2ND DEGREE-THREATEN BODILY INJURY               0.009378
## DescriptionHARASSMENT 1ST DEGREE                                        0.006992
## DescriptionHARASSMENT 2ND DEGREE                                        1.000000
## DescriptionHARASSMENT OF PUBLIC OFFICIAL OR EMPLOYEE                    0.000289
## DescriptionINTERFERENCE W/ CORRECTIONS OFFICIAL - DISPLAY DANGEROUS WEA 1.000000
## DescriptionINTERFERENCE W/OFFICIAL ACTS No injury or damage             7.45e-05
## DescriptionINTIMIDATION WITH A DANGEROUS WEAPON                         0.457068
## DescriptionINTIMIDATION WITH A DANGEROUS WEAPON - INJURE/PROVOKE FEAR   0.585638
## DescriptionKIDNAPPING 1ST DEGREE                                        0.015529
## DescriptionMALICIOUS PROSECUTION                                        0.007454
## DescriptionMURDER 1ST DEGREE                                            0.000373
## DescriptionMURDER 2ND DEGREE                                            0.015529
## DescriptionMURDER IN THE 1ST DEGREE -- PREMEDITATION                    0.002962
## DescriptionNARCS - CONSPIRACY TO DELIVER SCH II - METH                  0.515898
## DescriptionNARCS - DELIVER SCH II - CRACK COCAINE                       0.573643
## DescriptionNARCS - MANUFACTURING SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE               0.260831
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH I                     0.154634
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH I - HEROIN            0.490786
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II                    0.235694
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - AMPHETAMINE      0.260831
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - CRACK COCAINE    0.092133
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE  0.173236
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH I                                     0.002755
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH I - MARIJUANA                         0.011985
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II                                    0.132066
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE                  0.019624
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II - MORPH                            0.009378
## DescriptionNEGLECT OR ABANDONMENT OF DEPENDANT PERSON                   0.457068
## DescriptionNEGLECT OR ABANDONMENT OF DEPENDENT PERSON                   0.457068
## DescriptionNONSUPPORT OF CHILD                                          0.219126
## DescriptionOPER VEH WH INT (OWI) / 3RD OFFENSE                          0.191925
## DescriptionOPERATE VEHICLE WITHOUT OWNERS CONSENT-- Motor Vehicle       0.041027
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - 1ST OFFENSE - OWI 1ST          0.011105
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - 2ND OFFENSE - OWI 2            0.053425
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - SECOND OFFENSE                 0.057668
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED, First Offense                   0.402720
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 1ST OFFENSE              0.003196
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 2ND OFFENSE              0.018910
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 3RD OFFENSE              0.132066
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF A CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE                         0.121853
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF A CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE, 3RD OR SUBSEQUENT OFFE 0.041027
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTRABAND IN CORRECTIONAL FACILITY            0.191925
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE - 3RD OR SUBSEQ OFFENSE 1 0.191925
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE - METHAMPHETAMINE 1ST OFF 0.009378
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE MARIJUANA, 3RD/SUBSEQUENT 0.457068
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE, 2ND OFFENSE              0.018452
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF DRUG PARAPHERNALIA                             0.000384
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF WEAPON AS FELON                                0.546667
## DescriptionPROBATION VIOLATION                                          0.236955
## DescriptionPROSTITUTION                                                 0.137504
## DescriptionPROVIDING FALSE INFORMATION                                  0.000384
## DescriptionROBBERY-1ST DEGREE                                           1.000000
## DescriptionROBBERY 1ST DEGREE                                           0.257032
## DescriptionROBBERY 2ND DEGREE                                           0.916682
## DescriptionSERIOUS INJURY BY VEHICLE                                    0.573643
## DescriptionSEX OFFENDER - ADDITIONAL REGISTRATION VIOLATION - 1ST OFFEN 0.041027
## DescriptionSEXUAL ABUSE 2ND DEGREE                                      1.000000
## DescriptionSEXUAL ABUSE 3RD DEGREE                                      0.457068
## DescriptionSTALKING                                                     0.457068
## DescriptionTHEFT 1ST DEGREE                                             0.657566
## DescriptionTHEFT 2ND DEGREE                                             0.081254
## DescriptionTHEFT 3RD DEGREE                                             0.018760
## DescriptionTHEFT 3RD DEGREE -- Possess/Control Over $500 Under $1,000   0.041027
## DescriptionTHEFT 4TH DEGREE                                             0.018756
## DescriptionTHEFT 5TH DEGREE                                             0.000580
## DescriptionTRAFFICKING IN STOLEN WEAPONS                                0.191925
## DescriptionTRAFFICKING IN STOLEN WEAPONS 1ST OFFENSE                    1.000000
## DescriptionTRESPASS - INJURY OR DAMAGE OVER $200                        0.457068
## DescriptionTRESPASS - INJURY/DAMAGE over $200                           0.009378
## DescriptionUNLAWFUL POSSESSION OF PRESCRIPTION DRUG                     0.002755
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF NO CONTACT / PROTECTIVE ORDER                   0.416388
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF NO CONTACT OR PROTECTIVE ORDER                  0.480465
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985                                0.025860
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985 VIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985  0.006886
## DescriptionWILLFUL FAILURE TO STOP FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT                  0.009378
## DescriptionWILLFUL INJURY                                               0.457068
## DescriptionWILLFUL INJURY - CAUSING BODILY INJURY                       0.457068
##                                                                            
## (Intercept)                                                             ***
## DescriptionARSON 1ST DEGREE -- Persons Present                             
## DescriptionARSON 2ND DEGREE                                                
## DescriptionASSAULT - w/ Intent to Cause Pain/Injury                        
## DescriptionASSAULT - WILLFUL INJURY                                        
## DescriptionASSAULT (SMMS)                                               ***
## DescriptionASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY                                ** 
## DescriptionASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY OR MENTAL ILLNESS              ** 
## DescriptionASSAULT ON PEACE OFFICERS and OTHERS                         ** 
## DescriptionASSAULT ON PERSONS IN CERTAIN OCCUPATIONS-NO INJURY          ** 
## DescriptionASSAULT USE/DISPLAY OF A WEAPON                              *  
## DescriptionASSAULT WHILE DISPLAYING A DANGEROUS WEAPON                  *  
## DescriptionASSAULT WITH INTENT OF INJURY ON A PEACE OFFICER/OTHERS         
## DescriptionATTEMPTED BURGLARY 3RD DEGREE                                *  
## DescriptionATTEMPTED MURDER                                             .  
## DescriptionBURGLARY 1ST DEGREE                                             
## DescriptionBURGLARY 1ST DEGREE -- Sexual Abuse                             
## DescriptionBURGLARY 2ND DEGREE                                             
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE                                             
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE-UNOCCUPIED MOTOR VEHICLE-2ND OR SUBSEQUE *  
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - MOTOR VEHICLE - 2ND OR SUBSEQUENT OFFE    
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - MOTOR VEHICLE, 1st Offence             *  
## DescriptionBURGLARY 3RD DEGREE - UNOCCUPIED MOTOR VEHICLE               *  
## DescriptionCARRYING WEAPONS                                             *  
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT -- Substantial Risk                       *  
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT - BODILY INJURY Child Endangerment -- Tor    
## DescriptionCHILD ENDANGERMENT (OLL OTHERS - NONVIOLENT)                    
## DescriptionCONSUMPTION / INTOXICATION                                   ***
## DescriptionCONTEMPT-ILLEGAL RESISTANCE TO ORDER OR PROCESS              ** 
## DescriptionCONTEMPT - RESIST ORDER OR PROCESS OF DISTRICT COURT Contemp *  
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION                                  
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION - Intent to Deliver Synthetic    
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION Conspire Intent Manufacture/D    
## DescriptionCONTROLLED SUBSTANCE VIOLATION Conspire w/ Intent to Deliver    
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 2ND DEGREE                                    
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 3RD DEGREE                                    
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 4TH DEGREE                                 ** 
## DescriptionCRIMINAL MISCHIEF 5TH DEGREE                                 ** 
## DescriptionDISORDERLY CONDUCT                                           ** 
## DescriptionDNU - INTERFERENCE W/ OFFICIAL ACTS -                        ** 
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT                                       ** 
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT- INJURY OR MENTAL ILLNESS - 1ST OFFEN    
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT - 3RD OR SUBSEQUENT OFFENSE              
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT CAUSE BODILY INJURY/MENTAL ILLNESS    *  
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT DISPLAY OR USE OF A WEAPON - 1ST OFFE    
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT IMPEDING AIR/BLOOD FLOW CAUSING BODIL *  
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT IMPEDING FLOW OF AIR/BLOOD               
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT W/INTENT OR DISPLAYS A WEAPON            
## DescriptionDOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT WITH STRANGULATION                       
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE BARRED - HABITUAL OFFENDER                     *  
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE BARRED HABITUAL OFFENDER                       *  
## DescriptionDRIVING WHILE LICENSE DENIED,SUSP,CANCELLED OR REVOKED       ***
## DescriptionELUDING (AGMS) ELUDING (AGMS)                                *  
## DescriptionELUDING (FELD)                                                  
## DescriptionELUDING (SRMS) ELUDING (SRMS)                                ** 
## DescriptionELUDING POLICE OFFICER                                          
## DescriptionESCAPE - 0001                                                *  
## DescriptionESCAPE FROM CUSTODY - MISDEMEANANT                           .  
## DescriptionFAILURE TO AFFIX DRUG TAX STAMP                                 
## DescriptionFALSE REPORT TO PUBLIC ENITY                                 ** 
## DescriptionFELON - DOMINION OR CONTROL OF FIREARM OR OFFENSIVE WEAPON F    
## DescriptionFORGERY                                                         
## DescriptionHARASSMENT - 2ND DEGREE-THREATEN BODILY INJURY               ** 
## DescriptionHARASSMENT 1ST DEGREE                                        ** 
## DescriptionHARASSMENT 2ND DEGREE                                           
## DescriptionHARASSMENT OF PUBLIC OFFICIAL OR EMPLOYEE                    ***
## DescriptionINTERFERENCE W/ CORRECTIONS OFFICIAL - DISPLAY DANGEROUS WEA    
## DescriptionINTERFERENCE W/OFFICIAL ACTS No injury or damage             ***
## DescriptionINTIMIDATION WITH A DANGEROUS WEAPON                            
## DescriptionINTIMIDATION WITH A DANGEROUS WEAPON - INJURE/PROVOKE FEAR      
## DescriptionKIDNAPPING 1ST DEGREE                                        *  
## DescriptionMALICIOUS PROSECUTION                                        ** 
## DescriptionMURDER 1ST DEGREE                                            ***
## DescriptionMURDER 2ND DEGREE                                            *  
## DescriptionMURDER IN THE 1ST DEGREE -- PREMEDITATION                    ** 
## DescriptionNARCS - CONSPIRACY TO DELIVER SCH II - METH                     
## DescriptionNARCS - DELIVER SCH II - CRACK COCAINE                          
## DescriptionNARCS - MANUFACTURING SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE                  
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH I                        
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH I - HEROIN               
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II                       
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - AMPHETAMINE         
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - CRACK COCAINE    .  
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESS W / INTENT DELIVER SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE     
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH I                                     ** 
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH I - MARIJUANA                         *  
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II                                       
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II - METHAMPHETAMINE                  *  
## DescriptionNARCS - POSSESSION SCH II - MORPH                            ** 
## DescriptionNEGLECT OR ABANDONMENT OF DEPENDANT PERSON                      
## DescriptionNEGLECT OR ABANDONMENT OF DEPENDENT PERSON                      
## DescriptionNONSUPPORT OF CHILD                                             
## DescriptionOPER VEH WH INT (OWI) / 3RD OFFENSE                             
## DescriptionOPERATE VEHICLE WITHOUT OWNERS CONSENT-- Motor Vehicle       *  
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - 1ST OFFENSE - OWI 1ST          *  
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - 2ND OFFENSE - OWI 2            .  
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED - SECOND OFFENSE                 .  
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE INTOXICATED, First Offense                      
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 1ST OFFENSE              ** 
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 2ND OFFENSE              *  
## DescriptionOPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 3RD OFFENSE                 
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF A CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE                            
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF A CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE, 3RD OR SUBSEQUENT OFFE *  
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTRABAND IN CORRECTIONAL FACILITY               
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE - 3RD OR SUBSEQ OFFENSE 1    
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE - METHAMPHETAMINE 1ST OFF ** 
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE MARIJUANA, 3RD/SUBSEQUENT    
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE, 2ND OFFENSE              *  
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF DRUG PARAPHERNALIA                             ***
## DescriptionPOSSESSION OF WEAPON AS FELON                                   
## DescriptionPROBATION VIOLATION                                             
## DescriptionPROSTITUTION                                                    
## DescriptionPROVIDING FALSE INFORMATION                                  ***
## DescriptionROBBERY-1ST DEGREE                                              
## DescriptionROBBERY 1ST DEGREE                                              
## DescriptionROBBERY 2ND DEGREE                                              
## DescriptionSERIOUS INJURY BY VEHICLE                                       
## DescriptionSEX OFFENDER - ADDITIONAL REGISTRATION VIOLATION - 1ST OFFEN *  
## DescriptionSEXUAL ABUSE 2ND DEGREE                                         
## DescriptionSEXUAL ABUSE 3RD DEGREE                                         
## DescriptionSTALKING                                                        
## DescriptionTHEFT 1ST DEGREE                                                
## DescriptionTHEFT 2ND DEGREE                                             .  
## DescriptionTHEFT 3RD DEGREE                                             *  
## DescriptionTHEFT 3RD DEGREE -- Possess/Control Over $500 Under $1,000   *  
## DescriptionTHEFT 4TH DEGREE                                             *  
## DescriptionTHEFT 5TH DEGREE                                             ***
## DescriptionTRAFFICKING IN STOLEN WEAPONS                                   
## DescriptionTRAFFICKING IN STOLEN WEAPONS 1ST OFFENSE                       
## DescriptionTRESPASS - INJURY OR DAMAGE OVER $200                           
## DescriptionTRESPASS - INJURY/DAMAGE over $200                           ** 
## DescriptionUNLAWFUL POSSESSION OF PRESCRIPTION DRUG                     ** 
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF NO CONTACT / PROTECTIVE ORDER                      
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF NO CONTACT OR PROTECTIVE ORDER                     
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985                                *  
## DescriptionVIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985 VIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985  ** 
## DescriptionWILLFUL FAILURE TO STOP FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT                  ** 
## DescriptionWILLFUL INJURY                                                  
## DescriptionWILLFUL INJURY - CAUSING BODILY INJURY                          
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.87 on 278 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.8372,	Adjusted R-squared:  0.7564 
## F-statistic: 10.36 on 138 and 278 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16
plot(bonds$LogBond, ols2$residuals, main = "Prediction Errors vs Actual Values",
     xlab="Actual Bond Value (natural log)", ylab="Prediction Error")
# our adjusted R-squared is WAY better, and our residuals look good as well.

# what arrest types significantly impact bond amount?
results <- as.data.frame(summary(ols2)$coefficients)
sig.results <- results[results$`Pr(>|t|)` <= 0.01,]
sig.results$pct.estimate <- round(exp(sig.results$Estimate),4)*100
row.names(sig.results) <- substr(row.names(sig.results), 12, 100000)
sig.results["pct.estimate"]
##                                                              pct.estimate
##                                                                2500000.00
## ASSAULT (SMMS)                                                       3.10
## ASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY                                        6.06
## ASSAULT CAUSING BODILY INJURY OR MENTAL ILLNESS                      4.00
## ASSAULT ON PEACE OFFICERS and OTHERS                                 4.00
## ASSAULT ON PERSONS IN CERTAIN OCCUPATIONS-NO INJURY                  4.00
## CONSUMPTION / INTOXICATION                                           2.53
## CONTEMPT-ILLEGAL RESISTANCE TO ORDER OR PROCESS                      2.00
## CRIMINAL MISCHIEF 4TH DEGREE                                         4.00
## CRIMINAL MISCHIEF 5TH DEGREE                                         4.00
## DISORDERLY CONDUCT                                                   2.00
## DNU - INTERFERENCE W/ OFFICIAL ACTS -                                2.00
## DOMESTIC ABUSE ASSAULT                                               4.99
## DRIVING WHILE LICENSE DENIED,SUSP,CANCELLED OR REVOKED               3.09
## ELUDING (SRMS) ELUDING (SRMS)                                        4.00
## FALSE REPORT TO PUBLIC ENITY                                         4.00
## HARASSMENT - 2ND DEGREE-THREATEN BODILY INJURY                       4.00
## HARASSMENT 1ST DEGREE                                                7.11
## HARASSMENT OF PUBLIC OFFICIAL OR EMPLOYEE                            2.00
## INTERFERENCE W/OFFICIAL ACTS No injury or damage                     2.00
## MALICIOUS PROSECUTION                                                5.66
## MURDER 1ST DEGREE                                                 2721.58
## MURDER IN THE 1ST DEGREE -- PREMEDITATION                         4000.00
## NARCS - POSSESSION SCH I                                             4.00
## NARCS - POSSESSION SCH II - MORPH                                    4.00
## OPERATING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 1ST OFFENSE                      5.04
## POSSESSION OF CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE - METHAMPHETAMINE 1ST OFF         4.00
## POSSESSION OF DRUG PARAPHERNALIA                                     1.20
## PROVIDING FALSE INFORMATION                                          1.20
## THEFT 5TH DEGREE                                                     2.45
## TRESPASS - INJURY/DAMAGE over $200                                   4.00
## UNLAWFUL POSSESSION OF PRESCRIPTION DRUG                             4.00
## VIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985 VIOLATION OF PROBATION - 1985          7.08
## WILLFUL FAILURE TO STOP FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT                          4.00
# now let's see how well this performs against our holdout sample

treepred <- predict(tree2, newdata=validate, type='class')
confusionMatrix(treepred, validate$BondDummy)
## Confusion Matrix and Statistics
## 
##           Reference
## Prediction FALSE TRUE
##      FALSE    43    4
##      TRUE     19  103
##                                           
##                Accuracy : 0.8639          
##                  95% CI : (0.8028, 0.9117)
##     No Information Rate : 0.6331          
##     P-Value [Acc > NIR] : 1.923e-11       
##                                           
##                   Kappa : 0.6913          
##  Mcnemar's Test P-Value : 0.003509        
##                                           
##             Sensitivity : 0.6935          
##             Specificity : 0.9626          
##          Pos Pred Value : 0.9149          
##          Neg Pred Value : 0.8443          
##              Prevalence : 0.3669          
##          Detection Rate : 0.2544          
##    Detection Prevalence : 0.2781          
##       Balanced Accuracy : 0.8281          
##                                           
##        'Positive' Class : FALSE           
## 
# ignore arrest records that have an arrest description the model hasn't seen before
bondvalid <- validate[validate$BondDummy == TRUE,]
bondvalid$LogBond <- log(bondvalid$BondNum)
train <- droplevels(train)
id <- which(!(bondvalid$Description %in% levels(train$Description)))
bondvalid$Description[id] <- NA
id2 <- which(bondvalid$Description == "TRESPASS")
bondvalid$Description[id2] <- NA
bondpred <- predict(ols2, newdata=bondvalid)

compare <- data.frame(bondpred, bondvalid$LogBond*-1, bondvalid$LogBond)
colnames(compare) <- c("predicted", "neg.actual", "actual")
compare <- na.omit(compare)
compare$resid <- rowSums(compare[c('predicted', 'neg.actual')])

plot(compare$actual, compare$resid, main = "Prediction Errors for Holdout Sample", xlab="Actual Bond Value (natural log)", ylab = "Prediction Error")